---
title: "2022 NFL Moneyline Picks"
output:
flexdashboard::flex_dashboard:
theme:
version: 4
bootswatch: spacelab
orientation: rows
vertical_layout: fill
social: ["menu"]
source_code: embed
navbar:
- { title: "Created by: Daniel Baller", icon: "fa-github", href: "https://github.com/danielpballer" }
---
```{r setup, include=FALSE}
# source_code: embed
library(flexdashboard)
library(tidyverse)
library(data.table)
library(formattable)
library(ggpubr)
library(ggrepel)
library(gt)
library(glue)
library(ggthemes)
library(hrbrthemes)
library(sparkline)
library(plotly)
library(htmlwidgets)
library(mdthemes)
library(ggtext)
library(ggnewscale)
library(DT)
source("./Functions/functions2.R")
thematic::thematic_rmd(font = "auto")
```
```{r Reading in our picks files, include=FALSE}
current_week = 21 #Set what week it is
week_1 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 1.csv")
week_2 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 2.csv")
week_3 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 3.csv")
week_4 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 4.csv")
week_5 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 5.csv")
week_6 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 6.csv")
week_7 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 7.csv")
week_8 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 8.csv")
week_9 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 9.csv")
week_10 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 10.csv")
week_11 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 11.csv")
week_12 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 12.csv")
week_13 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 13.csv")
week_14 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 14.csv")
week_15 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 15.csv")
week_16 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 16.csv")
week_17 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 17.csv")
week_18 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Week 18.csv")
week_19 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Wild Card.csv")
week_20 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Divisional Round.csv")
week_21 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Conference Round.csv")
# week_22 = read_csv("./CSV_Data_Files/2022 NFL Super Bowl.csv")
#reading in scores
Scores = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/NFL_Scores_{current_week}.csv"))
#reading in CBS Prediction Records
cbs = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/CBS_Experts_{current_week}.csv")) %>%
mutate(Percent = round(Percent,4))
cbs_season = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/CBS_Experts_Season_{current_week}.csv"))
#reading in ESPN Prediction Records
espn = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/ESPN_Experts_{current_week}.csv"))%>%
mutate(Percent = round(Percent,4))
espn_season = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/ESPN_Experts_Season_{current_week}.csv"))%>%
mutate(Percent = round(Percent,4))
#Odds not working for the 2022 season. Need to fix scrape code for next year.
#Reading in the moneyline odds for each team and cleaning the team names
# odds_wk1 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_1.csv"))
# odds_wk2 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_2.csv"))
# odds_wk3 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_3.csv"))
# odds_wk4 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_4.csv"))
# odds_wk5 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_5.csv"))
# odds_wk6 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_6.csv"))
# odds_wk7 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_7.csv"))
# odds_wk8 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_8.csv"))
# odds_wk9 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_9.csv"))
# odds_wk10 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_10.csv"))
# odds_wk11 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_11.csv"))
# odds_wk12 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_12.csv"))
# odds_wk13 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_13.csv"))
# odds_wk14 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_14.csv"))
# odds_wk15 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_15.csv"))
# odds_wk16 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_16.csv"))
# odds_wk17 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_17.csv"))
# odds_wk18 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_18.csv"))
# odds_wk19 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_19.csv"))
# odds_wk20 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_20.csv"))
# odds_wk21 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_21.csv"))
# odds_wk22 = read_csv(glue::glue("./CSV_Data_Files/Moneyline_Odds_22.csv"))
####################UPDATE THESE###############################
inst.picks = list(week_1, week_2, week_3, week_4, week_5, week_6, week_7, week_8, week_9, week_10, week_11,
week_12, week_13, week_14, week_15, week_16, week_17, week_18, week_19,
week_20, week_21) #add in the additional weeks
# odds = rbind(odds_wk1, odds_wk2, odds_wk3, odds_wk4, odds_wk5, odds_wk6, odds_wk7, odds_wk8,
# odds_wk9, odds_wk10, odds_wk11, odds_wk12) #add in the additional weeks
####################END OF UPDATE##############################
weeks = as.list(seq(1:current_week)) #creating a list of each week number
```
```{r read in scores clean data, include=FALSE}
#Cleaning Odds Data
# cl_odds = odds_cleaning(odds)
#Cleaning scores data
Scores = cleaning2(Scores)
#creating a list of winners for each week
winners = map(weeks, weekly_winners)
#creating a vector of this weeks winners
this_week = pull(winners[[length(winners)]])
#Getting the number of games for each week
weekly_number_of_games = map_dbl(weeks, week_number_games)
```
```{r Group Predictions, include=FALSE}
#Creating the list of everyones predictions each week.
games = map(inst.picks, games_fn)
#Creating the prediction table.
pred_table = map(games, pred_table_fn)
#Adding who won to the predictions
with_winners = map2(pred_table, winners, adding_winners)
#Creating results for each week.
results = map2(with_winners,weekly_number_of_games, results_fn)
```
```{r Displaying Group Results, echo=FALSE}
#Displaying the group results
inst_group_table = results[[length(results)]] %>% gt() %>%
cols_align(
align = "center") %>%
tab_header(
title = md("This Week's Predictions"),
subtitle = md(glue("Week {length(results)}"))
) %>%
tab_style(
style = cell_text(color = "red", weight = "bold"),
locations = cells_body(
columns = c(Correct),
rows = Correct =="No"
)) %>%
tab_style(
style = cell_text(color = "green", weight = "bold"),
locations = cells_body(
columns = c(Correct),
rows = Correct =="Yes"
)) %>%
tab_options(
data_row.padding = px(3),
container.height = "100%"
)
```
```{r Weekly and season Group Results, include=FALSE}
# Printing the weekly and season win percentage
#how many games correct, incorrect, and not picked each week
weekly_group_correct = map(results, weekly_group_correct_fn)
#how many games were picked each week
weekly_games_picked = map2(weekly_group_correct, weekly_number_of_games, weekly_games_picked_fn)
#Calculating the number of correct picks for each week
weekly_group_correct_picks = map(weekly_group_correct, weekly_group_correct_picks_fn)
#Calculating weekly win percentage
weekly_win_percentage = map2(weekly_group_correct_picks, weekly_games_picked, weekly_win_percentage_fn)
#Calculating season win percentage
season_win_percentage = round(sum(unlist(weekly_group_correct_picks))/sum(unlist(weekly_games_picked)),4)
#Calculating number of games picked this season
season_games = sum(unlist(weekly_games_picked))
#calculating season wins
season_wins = sum(unlist(weekly_group_correct_picks))
#calculating the number of people who picked this week
Total = dim(inst.picks[[length(weeks)]])[1]
```
```{r plotting group results, include=FALSE}
#Previous Weeks
group_season_for_plotting = unlist(weekly_win_percentage) %>% as.data.frame() %>%
rename(`Win Percentage` = ".") %>%
add_column(Week = unlist(weeks))
```
```{r Plotting the group results, echo=FALSE}
inst_group_season_plot = group_season_for_plotting %>%
ggplot(aes(x = as.factor(Week), y = `Win Percentage`))+
geom_point()+
geom_path(aes(x = Week))+
ylim(c(0, 1)) +
xlab("NFL Week") +
ylab("Correct Percentage")+
ggtitle("Weekly Group Correct Percentage")+
theme_classic()+
theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5, size = 18))
```
```{r instructor beating cbs week, include=FALSE}
#Creating a list of correct percentages for each week.
cbs_weekly_percent = map(weeks, cbs_percent)
#Creating a list of how many cbs experts we beat each week.
cbs_experts_beat = map2(cbs_weekly_percent, weekly_win_percentage, experts_beat)
#Creating a list of how many cbs experts picked each week.
cbs_experts_total = map(cbs_weekly_percent, experts_tot)
```
```{r instructor beating cbs season, include=FALSE}
#Creating a list of correct percentages for each week.
cbs_season_percent = map(weeks, cbs_season_percent)
#Creating a list of how many cbs experts we beat each week.
cbs_experts_beat_season = map2(cbs_season_percent, season_win_percentage, experts_beat)
#Creating a list of how many cbs experts picked each week.
cbs_experts_season_total = map(cbs_season_percent, experts_tot)
```
```{r instructor beating ESPN week, include=FALSE}
#Creating a list of correct percentages for each week.
espn_weekly_percent = map(weeks, espn_percent)
#Creating a list of how many cbs experts we beat each week.
espn_experts_beat = map2(espn_weekly_percent, weekly_win_percentage, experts_beat)
#Creating a list of how many cbs experts picked each week.
espn_experts_total = map(espn_weekly_percent, experts_tot)
```
```{r instructor beating ESPN season, include=FALSE}
#Creating a list of correct percentages for each week.
espn_season_percent = map(weeks, espn_season_percent)
#Creating a list of how many cbs experts we beat each week.
espn_experts_beat_season = map2(espn_season_percent, season_win_percentage, experts_beat)
#Creating a list of how many cbs experts picked each week.
espn_experts_season_total = map(espn_season_percent, experts_tot)
```
```{r individual results, include=FALSE}
#Creating a list of individual results for each week.
weekly_indiv = pmap(list(inst.picks, winners, weeks), indiv_weekly_pred)
#Combining each week into one dataframe and calculating percentage Correct for this week.
full_season = weekly_indiv %>% reduce(full_join, by = "Name") %>%
mutate(Percent = round(pull(.[,ncol(.)]/weekly_number_of_games[[length(weekly_number_of_games)]]),4))
#Creating a dataframe with only the weekly picks
a = full_season %>% select(starts_with("Week"))
#Creating a vector of how many weeks each person picked over the season
tot_week = NULL
help = NULL
for (i in 1:dim(a)[1]){
for(j in 1:length(a)){
help[j] = ifelse(is.na(a[i,j])==T,0,1)
tot_week[i] = sum(help)
}
}
#Creating a vector of how many games each person picked over the season
tot_picks= NULL
help = NULL
for (i in 1:dim(a)[1]){
for(j in 1:length(a)){
help[j] = unlist(weekly_games_picked)[j]*ifelse(is.na(a[i,j])==T,0,1)
tot_picks[i] = sum(help)
}
}
#Creatign a vector of how many games each person picked correct over the season
tot_correct = NULL
help = NULL
for (i in 1:dim(a)[1]){
tot_correct[i] = sum(a[i,], na.rm = T)
}
#adding how many weeks each person picked, season correct percentage, and adjusted season percentag to the data frame and sorting the data
indiv_disp = full_season %>% add_column(`Weeks Picked` = tot_week) %>%
add_column(tot_correct)%>%
add_column(tot_picks)%>%
mutate(`Season Percent` = round(tot_correct/tot_picks,4))%>%
mutate(`Adj Season Percent` = round(`Season Percent`*(tot_week/length(a)),4)) %>%
select(-tot_correct, -tot_picks) %>%
arrange(desc(Percent), desc(`Season Percent`)) %>%
mutate(Percent = ifelse(is.na(Percent)==T, 0, Percent))
```
```{r individual percentages, include=FALSE}
#Calculating individual percentages for each week.
weekly_indiv_percent = map2(weekly_indiv, as.list(weekly_number_of_games), indiv_percent) %>% reduce(full_join, by = "Name")
weekly_indiv_percent_plot = weekly_indiv_percent %>%
pivot_longer(cols = starts_with("Week"), names_to = "Week", values_to = "Percent")%>%
mutate(Percent = ifelse(is.na(Percent)==T, 0, Percent)) %>%
mutate(Week = as.factor(Week))
levels = NULL
for(i in 1:length(weeks)){
levels[i] = glue("Week {i}")
}
weekly_indiv_percent_plot = weekly_indiv_percent_plot %>%
mutate(Week = factor(Week, levels))
```
```{r sparklines, include=FALSE}
#adding sparklines
plot_group = function(name, df){
plot_object =
ggplot(data = df,
aes(x = as.factor(Week), y=Percent, group = 1))+
geom_path(size = 7)+
scale_y_continuous(limits = c(0,1))+
theme_void()+
theme(legend.position = "none")
return(plot_object)
}
sparklines =
weekly_indiv_percent_plot %>%
group_by(Name) %>%
nest() %>%
mutate(plot = map2(Name, data, plot_group)) %>%
select(-data)
indiv_disp_2 = indiv_disp %>%
inner_join(sparklines, by = "Name") %>%
mutate(`Season Trend` = NA)
```
```{r Printing Individual Table2, echo=FALSE}
# Printing the individual Table
indiv_table = indiv_disp_2 %>% gt() %>%
cols_align(
align = "center") %>%
tab_header(
title = md("Individual Results"),
subtitle = md(glue("Week {length(weeks)}"))
) %>%
tab_style(
style = cell_text(color = "red", weight = "bold"),
locations = cells_body(
columns = c(Percent),
rows = Percent<.5
)) %>%
tab_style(
style = cell_text(color = "green", weight = "bold"),
locations = cells_body(
columns = c(Percent),
rows = Percent>.5
)) %>%
tab_style(
style = cell_text(color = "red", weight = "bold"),
locations = cells_body(
columns = c(`Season Percent`),
rows = `Season Percent`<.5
)) %>%
tab_style(
style = cell_text(color = "green", weight = "bold"),
locations = cells_body(
columns = c(`Season Percent`),
rows = `Season Percent`>.5
))%>%
tab_style(
style = cell_text(color = "red", weight = "bold"),
locations = cells_body(
columns = c(`Adj Season Percent`),
rows = `Adj Season Percent`<.5
)) %>%
tab_style(
style = cell_text(color = "green", weight = "bold"),
locations = cells_body(
columns = c(`Adj Season Percent`),
rows = `Adj Season Percent`>.5
)) %>%
tab_options(
container.width = pct(100),
data_row.padding = px(1),
container.height = "100%"
) %>%
tab_spanner(
label = "Weekly # Correct",
columns = starts_with(c("Week "))
) %>%
text_transform(
locations = cells_body(c(`Season Trend`)),
fn = function(x){
map(indiv_disp_2$plot, ggplot_image, height = px(30), aspect_ratio = 4)
}) %>%
cols_hide(c(plot))
indiv_winners = indiv_disp_2 %>% filter(Percent == max(Percent)) %>% select(Name) %>% pull() %>% paste(collapse = ", ")
indiv_season = indiv_disp_2 %>% filter(`Season Percent` == max(`Season Percent`)) %>% select(Name) %>% pull() %>% paste(collapse = ", ")
indiv_season_adj = indiv_disp_2 %>% filter(`Adj Season Percent` == max(`Adj Season Percent`)) %>% select(Name) %>% pull()%>% paste(collapse = ", ")
```
```{r instructor formattable, echo=FALSE}
improvement_formatter <-
formatter("span",
style = x ~ formattable::style(
font.weight = "bold",
color = ifelse(x > .5, "green", ifelse(x < .5, "red", "black"))),
x ~ icontext(ifelse(x == max(x), "star", ""), x))
indiv_disp_3 = indiv_disp_2 %>% select(-plot)
indiv_disp_3$`Season Trend` = apply(indiv_disp_3[,2:(1+length(weeks))], 1, FUN = function(x) as.character(htmltools::as.tags(sparkline(as.numeric(x), type = "line", chartRangeMin = 0, chartRangeMax = 1, fillColor = "white"))))
indiv_table_2 = as.htmlwidget(formattable(indiv_disp_3,
align = c("l", rep("c", NROW(indiv_disp_3)-1)),
list(`Season Percent` = color_bar("#FA614B"),
`Season Percent`= improvement_formatter,
`Adj Season Percent`= improvement_formatter)))
indiv_table_2$dependencies = c(indiv_table_2$dependencies, htmlwidgets:::widget_dependencies("sparkline", "sparkline"))
```
```{r Plotting individual results over the season2, echo=FALSE, out.width = "100%"}
#Creating the individual plot.
inst_indiv_plots = weekly_indiv_percent_plot %>%
ggplot(aes(x = factor(Week), y = Percent, color = Name))+
geom_point()+
geom_path(aes(x = as.factor(Week), y = Percent, color = Name,
group = Name))+
ylim(c(0, 1)) +
labs(x = "NFL Week",
y = "Correct Percentage",
title = "Weekly Individual Correct Percentage")+
facet_wrap(~Name)+
theme_classic()+
theme(legend.position = "none",
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5, size = 18),
axis.text.x=element_text(angle =45, vjust = 1, hjust = 1))
```
<!--
```{r Plotting individual results over the season, include=FALSE, out.width="100%"}
#Creating the individual plot.
indiv_plot_comb = weekly_indiv_percent %>%
pivot_longer(cols = starts_with("Week"), names_to = "Week", values_to = "Percent") %>%
mutate(Percent = ifelse(is.na(Percent)==T, 0, Percent)) %>%
#group_by(Name) %>%
ggplot(aes(x = as.factor(Week), y = Percent, color = Name))+
geom_point()+
geom_line(aes(x = as.factor(Week), y = Percent, color = Name,
group = Name))+
ylim(c(0, 1)) +
labs(x = "NFL Week",
y = "Correct Percentage",
title = "Weekly Individual Correct Percentage")+
theme_classic()+
theme(#legend.position = "none",
plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5, size = 18))
```
-->
```{r data for data page}
inst.data = map2(inst.picks, weeks, disp_data) %>% bind_rows()
```
```{r fivethirtyeight}
inst_538 = map(results, five38) %>% unlist() %>% sum()
```
```{r pregame, eval=FALSE, include=FALSE}
#Predictions for the week
#Creating the list of group predictions each week.
games = map(inst.picks, games_fn)
#Creating the prediction table.
pred_table = map(games, pred_table_fn)
#Printing table of instructor predictions
pred_table[[length(pred_table)]] %>% mutate(Game = row_number()) %>%
rename(`Votes For` = votes_for, `Votes Against` = votes_against) %>%
gt() %>%
cols_align(
align = "center") %>%
tab_header(
title = md("This Week's Predictions"),
subtitle = md(glue("Week {length(weeks)}"))
) %>%
tab_options(
data_row.padding = px(3)
)
```
Group Predictions
==========================================================================
Sidebar {.sidebar}
-------------------------------------
#### CBS Sports
<font size="4">
This week we beat or tied `r cbs_experts_beat[[length(weeks)]]` of `r cbs_experts_total[[length(weeks)]]` CBS Sports' Experts.
For the season we are currently beating or tied with `r cbs_experts_beat_season[[length(weeks)]]` of `r cbs_experts_season_total[[length(weeks)]]` CBS Sports' Experts.
</font>
#### ESPN
<font size="4">
We also beat or tied `r espn_experts_beat[[length(weeks)]]` of `r espn_experts_total[[length(weeks)]]` ESPN Experts.
For the season we are currently beating or tied with `r espn_experts_beat_season[[length(weeks)]]` of `r espn_experts_season_total[[length(weeks)]]` ESPN Experts.
</font>
Row
--------------------------------------
### Win percentage for the week
```{r}
inst_rate <- weekly_win_percentage[[length(weekly_win_percentage)]]*100
gauge(inst_rate, min = 0, max = 100, symbol = '%', gaugeSectors(
success = c(55, 100), warning = c(40, 54), danger = c(0, 39)
))
```
### Season Win Percentage
```{r}
inst_season <- season_win_percentage*100
gauge(inst_season, min = 0, max = 100, symbol = '%', gaugeSectors(
success = c(55, 100), warning = c(40, 54), danger = c(0, 39)
))
```
### Games Correct
```{r}
valueBox(value = season_wins,icon = "fa-trophy",caption = "Correct Games this Season")
```
### Games Picked
```{r}
valueBox(value = season_games,icon = "fa-clipboard-list",caption = "Games Picked this Season")
```
### Number of predictions
```{r}
valueBox(value = Total,icon = "fa-users",caption = "Predictions this week")
```
Row
--------------------------------------
###
```{r}
inst_group_table
```
###
```{r}
ggplotly(inst_group_season_plot) %>%
layout(title = list(y = .93, xref = "plot"),
margin = list(t = 40))
```
Individual Predictions
==========================================================================
Sidebar {.sidebar}
-------------------------------------
#### Best Picks of the Week.
<font size="4">
`r indiv_winners`
</font>
#### Best Season Correct Percentage
<font size="4">
`r indiv_season`
</font>
#### Best Adjusted Season Correct Percentage
<font size="4">
`r indiv_season_adj`
* Adjusted season percentage accounts for the number of weeks picked.
</font>
row {.tabset}
--------------------------------------
### Individual Table
```{r}
indiv_table
```
<!--
### Individual Table2
```{r, out.height="100%"}
indiv_table_2
```
-->
### Individual Plots
```{r, out.width="100%"}
ggplotly(inst_indiv_plots)
```
Data
==========================================================================
```{r}
datatable(
inst.data, extensions = 'Buttons', options = list(
dom = 'Blfrtip',
buttons = c('copy', 'csv', 'excel', 'pdf', 'print'),
lengthMenue = list( c(10, 25, 50, 100, -1), c(10, 25, 50, 100, "All") )
)
)
```
